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Explaining US Immigration 1971-1998

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Author Info
Ximena Clark
Timothy J. Hatton
Jeffery G. Williamson

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Abstract

In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain the level and source country composition of immigration to the United States since the early 1970s. The model incorporates ratios to the US of source country income and education, and demographic structure, as well as relative inequality as suggested by the Roy model applied to migrant selection. In addition we incorporate the 'friends and relatives effect' as reflected in the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy. We estimate our immigration model on a panel of 81 source countries for the years 1971 to 1998. The results strongly support the influence of economic and demographic variables and geographic characteristics as well as policy variables. We use the results to shed light on the factors that influenced the composition of US immigration by source region. And we provide a further check on its plausibility by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 453.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:453

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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  1. Antecol, Heather & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Trejo, Stephen, 2001. "Immigration Policy and the Skills of Immigrants to Australia, Canada, and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 363, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. George J. Borjas, 1991. "Immigration Policy, National Origin, and Immigrant Skills: A Comparison of Canada and the United States," NBER Working Papers 3691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Karemera, David & Oguledo, Victor Iwuagwu & Davis, Bobby, 2000. "A Gravity Model Analysis of International Migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration Out of Africa," NBER Working Papers 8124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Guillermina Jasso & Mark R. Rosenzweig & James P. Smith, 1998. "The Changing Skills of New Immigrants to the United States: Recent Trends and Their Determinants," NBER Working Papers 6764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chiswick, Barry R., 2000. "Are Immigrants Favorably Self-Selected? An Economic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 131, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Vanishing Third World Emigrants?," CEPR Discussion Papers 606, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Anna Maria Mayda, 2007. "International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0707, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London. [Downloadable!]
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