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Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis

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  • Marcel Mérette

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Patrick Georges

    ()
    (Graduate School of Public and International Affairs,University of Ottawa)

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-country overlapping-generations general equilibrium model to gauge the economic impacts of demographic changes in the global economy and its transmission effects on different countries. Although severe demographic pressures contribute to significantly lower real GDP per capita across several regions in the world, globalisation through international trade generates an improvement in the terms of trade of older OECD countries, which sustains their real consumption per capita, while globalisation through capital flows stimulates capital deepening and therefore growth in younger countries such as India and various parts of the Rest of the World. The general equilibrium nature of the ageing process is crucial to understand the net foreign asset dynamics of countries during the demographic transition, and this is particularly relevant for a country like China that is caught, in the global economy, between relatively older and younger countries. On this regard China, unlike older countries, does not benefit from a terms of trade improvement which could otherwise sustain its consumption, nor does it benefit, unlike India, from capital deepening, which could otherwise sustain its GDP growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Ottawa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0903E.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0903e

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Keywords: Inequality Demographic transition; ageing; globalisation; overlapping generations; computable general equilibrium modeling;

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  1. Paul Makdissi & Stéphane Mussard, 2008. "Analyzing the impact of indirect tax reforms on rank-dependent social welfare functions: a positional dominance approach," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 385-399, April.
  2. Duclos, Jean-Yves & Makdissi, Paul & Wodon, Quentin, 2003. "Poverty-Efficient Transfer Programs: The Role of Targeting and Allocation Rules," Cahiers de recherche 0305, CIRPEE.
  3. Makdissi, Paul & Groleau, Yves, 2002. "Que pouvons-nous apprendre des profils de pauvreté canadiens?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(2), pages 257-286, Juin.
  4. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
  5. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Rising Inequality? Changes in the Distribution of Income and Consumption in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 3964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lanjouw, Peter & Ravallion, Martin, 1999. "Benefit Incidence, Public Spending Reforms, and the Timing of Program Capture," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 257-73, May.
  7. Shorrocks, Anthony F, 1983. "Ranking Income Distributions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(197), pages 3-17, February.
  8. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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