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The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms

Author

Listed:
  • Renuga Nagarajan

    (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

  • Aurora A.C. Teixeira

    (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto, OBEGEF)

  • Sandra T. Silva

    (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

Although a myriad of important theoretical and empirical contributions on ageing populations exist, these contributions are diffuse and lack an integrated vision of the distinct mechanisms through which ageing populations impact on economic growth. As such, in this paper we survey the literature that provides insights on the ageing population and its effect on economic growth. In particular, we sought to uncover the main mechanisms through which ageing impacts on economic growth. The literature review shows that the impact of ageing on the performance of countries is intimately related to the mechanism elected. About 70% of the empirical studies that focused on the ‘public social expenditure’ mechanism convey a negative impact of ageing on economic performance, whereas the majority (60%) of empirical studies that focus on ‘human capital’ fail to uncover any significant statistical relation between ageing and the economic growth proxy and the positive impact is more closely related to the ‘consumption and saving patterns’ mechanism. Estimation methodologies also seem to be associated with distinct impacts of ageing on economic growth, with less sophisticated econometric methods (i.e. OLS and panel) being most often associated with negative (cor)relations. The bulk of the empirical evidence concerns developed countries (and the ‘public social expenditure’ mechanism), with most of the analysis indicating a negative and significant relation between ageing and growth. Given that developed, developing and even the least developed countries are/will be affected by the phenomenon of an ageing population, knowing the degree to which the influence of ageing varies among countries (including developing and the least developed), and through which mechanisms, is essential to specifying sound public policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:504
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Alina Cristina NUTA, 2014. "Some Comments About The Impact Of Population Ageing On Fiscal Indicators," Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 6(6), pages 188-194, December.
    4. Klaudia Przybysz & Agnieszka Stanimir, 2023. "Measuring Activity—The Picture of Seniors in Poland and Other European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    6. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Maria Teresa Balaguer‐Coll & Isabel Narbón‐Perpiñá & Jesús Peiró‐Palomino & Emili Tortosa‐Ausina, 2022. "Quality of government and economic growth at the municipal level: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 96-124, January.
    8. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    9. Mónica L. Azevedo & Óscar Afonso & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "Endogenous Growth and Intellectual Property Rights: A North–South Modelling Proposal with Population Ageing," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 72-94, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ageing; economic growth; consumption and saving patterns; public expenditure; human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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