Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Should Canada Diversify its Trade Pattern? An Overlapping- Generations CGE Analysis of Trade and Ageing

Contents:

Author Info

  • Patrick Georges

    ()
    (Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa)

  • Marcel Mérette

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)

  • Aylin Seckin§

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Istanbul Bilgi University, Kurtulus Deresi Cad. No 47, Dolapdere, Istanbul, Turkey.)

Abstract

A recurrent theme from politicians and commentators alike is that Canada is too exposed to the U.S. economy and could benefit from diversifying its trade pattern. In this paper we examine the validity of these calls in a context of world demographic changes. Although population ageing in Canada is expected to have a negative impact on welfare, international trade should prop up real consumption per capita through terms of trade improvements during the first half of the 21st century. This reflects a population ageing gap between Canada and many of its trading partners with younger populations whose demographic projections entail relatively smaller negative supply shocks and lesser relative price increases. The gains resulting from the globalization of trade flows might be intensified through an accurate pattern of North-South trade diversification that takes into account the extent and timing of population ageing in diverse regions of the world. The main policy implication of this analysis is that a diversification of Canada’s trade away from the U.S. in favor of faster-ageing countries such as Japan or Europe is not necessarily desirable.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/fra/documents/0906E.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found (http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/fra/documents/0906E.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://socialsciences.uottawa.ca/sites/default/files/public/eco/fra/documents/0906E.pdf). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Diane Ritchot)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Ottawa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0906E.

as in new window
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0906e

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 450, Station A, Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 6N5
Phone: (613) 562-5753
Fax: (613) 562-5999
Email:
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.uottawa.ca/eco/eng/index.asp
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Globalization; trade diversification; ageing; overlapping generations; computable general equilibrium modeling;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Patrick Georges, 2009. "Dispensing with NAFTA Rules of Origin? Some Policy Options for Canada," Working Papers 0904E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  2. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Feroli, Michael, 2006. "Demography and the U.S. current account deficit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
  7. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Krugman, Paul R, 1993. "What Do Undergrads Need to Know about Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 23-26, May.
  9. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Patrick Georges, 2012. "Trade Diversification Away from the U.S. or North American Customs Union? A Review of Canada’s Trade Policy Options," Working Papers 1205E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ott:wpaper:0906e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Ritchot).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.