Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aging and Pension Reform: Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Edgar Vogel
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Axel Börsch-Supan

Abstract

Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing wages. This decreases welfare for middle aged agents with assets accumulated for retirement. This paper addresses three important adjustments channels to dampen these detrimental effects of ageing: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation and increasing the retirement age. Although non of these suggestions is new in itself, we examine their effects jointly in one coherent model. Our quantitative finding is that openness has a relatively mild effect. In contrast, endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong effects. Under these adjustments maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 are reduced by about 3 percentage points.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ockenfels.uni-koeln.de/fileadmin/wiso_fak/stawi-ockenfels/pdf/wp_series_download/wp0059.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Cologne, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 59.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 06 Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kls:series:0059

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Albertus Magnus Platz, 50923 Köln
Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
Email:
Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-koeln.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: population aging; human capital; welfare; pension reform; retirement age; open economy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. James Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explanations With A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings With Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 1-58, January.
  2. de la Croix, David & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R., 2013. "Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-124.
  3. Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Papers 36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
  5. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-08, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  6. Ludwig, Alexander & Schelkle, Thomas & Vogel, Edgar, 2007. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-43, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  7. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  8. Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2005. "Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 33, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2006.
  9. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  10. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  11. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2009. "A quantitative analysis of the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, 1970-2000," Staff Report 427, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Glomm, Gerhard & Kaganovich, Michael, 2008. "Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1009-1034, August.
  13. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  14. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
  15. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2004. "Population Ageing and International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 4644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Broner, Fernando A & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio, 2011. "Gross Capital Flows: Dynamics and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. David Lagakos & Benjamin Moll & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Experience Matters: Human Capital and Development Accounting," NBER Working Papers 18602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Luisa Fuster & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2004. "Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework," Macroeconomics 0402008, EconWPA.
  21. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  22. Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2010. "Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle," Working Paper Series WP-2010-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2012. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 94-107, January.
  24. T. Buyse & F. Heylen & R. Van De Kerckhove, 2011. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth in OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/719, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  25. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2009. "Living Standards in an Aging Germany: The Benefits of Reforms and the Costs of Resistance," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 163-179, June.
  26. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao, 2009. "Labor Supply Elasticity and Social Security Reform," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2009-5, Center for Retirement Research, revised Mar 2009.
  27. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1997029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  28. Susumu Imai & Michael P. Keane, 2004. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 601-641, 05.
  29. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352.
  31. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  32. Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "The Gauss-Seidel-quasi-Newton method: A hybrid algorithm for solving dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1610-1632, May.
  33. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2011. "Does demographic change matter for growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 659-677, June.
  34. Maria Arrazola & Jose de Hevia, 2004. "More on the estimation of the human capital depreciation rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 145-148.
  35. Ben J. Heijdra & Laurie S. M. Reijnders, 2012. "Human Capital Accumulation and the Macroeconomy in an Ageing Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 4046, CESifo Group Munich.
  36. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette, 2001. " How Much Is Transfer and How Much Is Insurance in a Pay-As-You-Go System? The German Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(3), pages 505-24, September.
  37. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2013. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 769-809, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Reuß, Karsten, 2013. "Education and lifetime income during demographic transition," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-021, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kls:series:0059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Werner).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.