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Does demographic change matter for growth?

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  • Liao, Pei-Ju

Abstract

How important is the demographic transition for economic growth? To answer this question, this paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. The model is calibrated to data from Taiwan, a country that experienced rapid economic growth while undergoing significant demographic transition. Our results suggest that more than one-third of the output growth in Taiwan during the past four decades can be attributed to demographic transition, while TFP growth explains another third and the remainder is mainly due to skill-biased technological progress. Our results show that demographic change is an important driver of the growth process in countries undergoing rapid fertility decline.

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  • Liao, Pei-Ju, 2011. "Does demographic change matter for growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 659-677, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:5:p:659-677
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    3. Dieu Thanh Le & Hail Park, 2019. "The Impact Of Demographic Change On Economic Growth," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 471-484, August.
    4. repec:mea:meawpa:12257 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yeganeh Forouheshfar & Najat El Mekkaoui & Hippolyte d’Albis, 2020. "Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 183-213, June.
    6. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
    7. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    8. Aso, Hiroki, 2020. "Demographic transition and Economic development : the role of child costs," MPRA Paper 99966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    10. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
    11. Cullmann, Astrid & Stiel, Caroline, 2022. "Cost and productivity effects of demographic changes on local water service," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China : A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & Xueli Tang, 2020. "Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 431-454, December.
    14. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Intan Zanariah Zakaria, 2011. "Growth and Demographic Change: Do Environmental Factors Matter?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/46, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    15. Aso, Hiroki, 2020. "Differential Fertility, Intergenerational Mobility and the Process of Economic Development," MPRA Paper 106148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2017. "One-child policy in China: A unified growth analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Kunze, Lars, 2014. "Life expectancy and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 54-65.
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