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Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

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  • Luis Angeles

Abstract

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mech- anisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demo- graphic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish be- tween the e¤ects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are a¤ected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2008_25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_25

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Keywords: mortality; fertility; demographic transitions; unified growth models.;

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