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Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

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  • Luis Angeles

Abstract

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mech- anisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demo- graphic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish be- tween the e¤ects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are a¤ected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2008_25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_25

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Keywords: mortality; fertility; demographic transitions; unified growth models.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Strittmatter, Anthony & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Health and Economic Development - Evidence from the Introduction of Public Health Care," Economics Working Paper Series 1132, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  2. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  4. Mun Lai, 2012. "When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 323-348, January.
  5. Dierk Herzery & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," PGDA Working Papers 6310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  6. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Vea Papadopoulou, 2012. "Crime, Fertility, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 163, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  7. Chakraborty, Shankha & Bhattacharya, Joydeep, 2012. "Fertility Choice Under Child Mortality and Social Norms," Staff General Research Papers 34911, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Nicholas Wilson, 2014. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes: Health and Gender National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Moshe Hazan, 2012. "Life expectancy and schooling: new insights from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1237-1248, October.
  10. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  11. Aksan, Anna-Maria & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2013. "Twin Transitions," MPRA Paper 49929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2012. "Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 9312, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  13. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
  14. Chowdury, Sadia & Vergeer, Petra & Schmidt, Harald & Barroy, Helene & Bishai, David & Halpern, Scott, 2013. "Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning: Evidence and Policy Implications," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 84663, The World Bank.
  15. Anna-Maria Aksan & Shankha Chakraborty, 2013. "Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 855-885, July.

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