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Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

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  • Luis Angeles

Abstract

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mech- anisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demo- graphic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish be- tween the e¤ects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are a¤ected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2008_25.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2008_25

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Keywords: mortality; fertility; demographic transitions; unified growth models.;

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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2012. "Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 9312, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Anna-Maria Aksan & Shankha Chakraborty, 2013. "Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 855-885, July.
  3. Anthony Strittmatter & Uwe Sunde, 2013. "Health and economic development—evidence from the introduction of public health care," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1549-1584, October.
  4. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Herzer, Dierk & Strulik, Holger & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-456, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Aksan, Anna-Maria & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2013. "Twin Transitions," MPRA Paper 49929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Chowdury, Sadia & Vergeer, Petra & Schmidt, Harald & Barroy, Helene & Bishai, David & Halpern, Scott, 2013. "Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning: Evidence and Policy Implications," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 84663, The World Bank.
  8. Nicholas Wilson, 2014. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes: Human Capital National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mun Lai, 2012. "When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 323-348, January.
  10. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Vea Papadopoulou, 2012. "Crime, Fertility, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 163, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  11. Chakraborty, Shankha & Bhattacharya, Joydeep, 2012. "Fertility Choice Under Child Mortality and Social Norms," Staff General Research Papers 34911, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Moshe Hazan, 2012. "Life expectancy and schooling: new insights from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1237-1248, October.
  13. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Center for Development Economics 2011-08, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  14. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
  15. Kaushal, Kaushalendra Kumar, 2014. "Pathway from nutrition intake to wage among elementary workers in India," MPRA Paper 56652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.

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