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Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Matteo Cervellati () (University of Bologna, IAE Barcelona and IZA)
Uwe Sunde () (IZA, University of Bonn and CEPR)

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Abstract

This paper provides a unified theory of the economic and demographic transition. Individuals make optimal decisions about fertility, education of their children and the type and intensity of the investments in their own education. These decisions are affected by different dimensions of mortality and technological progress which change endogenously during the process of development. The model generates an endogenous transition from a regime characterized by limited human capital formation, little longevity, high child mortality, large fertility and a sluggish income and productivity growth to a modern growth regime in which lower net fertility is associated with the acquisition of human capital and improved living standards. Unlike previous models, the framework emphasizes the education composition of the population in terms of the equilibrium share of educated individuals, and differential fertility related to education. The framework explores the roles of different dimensions of mortality, wages and schooling in triggering the transition. The dynamics of the model are consistent with empirical observations and stylized facts that have been difficult to reconcile so far. For illustration we simulate the model and discuss the novel predictions using historical and cross-country data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2905.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2905

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Related research
Keywords: long-term development; demographic transition; endogenous life expectancy; child mortality; heterogeneous human capital; technological change; industrial revolution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Birth, Death, and Development: A Simple Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers 08-32, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. RICCI Francesco & ZACHARIADIS Marios, 2009. "Longevity and Education Externalities: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Working Papers 09.02.278, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 4160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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