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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society

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Author Info
David, DE LA CROIX (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)
Bo, MALMBERG

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Abstract

Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first stimulate an endogenous growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper with number 2006037.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 15 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2006037

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Related research
Keywords: Demographic Transition Life Expectancy Education Income Growth

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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