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The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to India

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  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Tomas Koegel
  • Warren C. Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov

Abstract

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic projections for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth rates caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexia Prskawetz & Tomas Koegel & Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2004. "The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to India," VID Working Papers 0403, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:0403
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    3. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    4. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, February.
    5. Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi & Dauda Olarotimi Oladipupo, 2019. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 186-196.
    6. Ilya Kashnitsky & Joop De Beer & Leo Van Wissen, 2020. "Economic Convergence In Ageing Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(1), pages 28-44, February.
    7. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    8. Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi & Dauda Olarotimi Oladipupo, 2019. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 186-196.
    9. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    10. Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method," Working Papers of BETA 2006-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Menashe-Oren, A. & Stecklov, G., 2017. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 17 - Population age structure and sex composition in sub-Saharan Africa: a rural-urban perspective," IFAD Research Series 280055, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    12. Dieu Thanh Le & Hail Park, 2019. "The Impact Of Demographic Change On Economic Growth," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 471-484, August.
    13. Zainab Jehan & Faiza Azhar Khan, 2020. "Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Pakistan: The Role of Capital Stock," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 155-178.
    14. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.

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