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The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in India

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Author Info

  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Thomas Kögel
  • Warren C. Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov

Abstract

During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic projections for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth rates caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.

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File URL: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/WP2004_3.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its series Working Papers with number 0403.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:0403

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Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/

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Keywords: Economic growth; age structure; probabilistic demographic projections; India;

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References

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  1. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
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  6. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  7. Tomas Kögel, 2001. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-030, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  8. Ronald Lee & Ryan Edwards, 2002. "The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the U.S.: Assessing the Uncertainties," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 16, pages 141-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  10. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
  12. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1998. "The Quality of Goverment," NBER Working Papers 6727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  14. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
  15. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
  16. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  17. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
  18. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  19. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
  20. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  21. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
  22. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Doran, Justin, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," MPRA Paper 48266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "A Further Look into the Demography-based GDP Forecasting Method," Working Papers of BETA 2006-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  4. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

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