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Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth

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Author Info
Raouf Boucekkine
David de la Croix
Omar Licandro

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Abstract

We explore the hypothesis that demographic changes which began in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are at the root of the acceleration in growth rates at the dawn of the modern age. During this period, life tables for Geneva and Venice show a decline in adult mortality; French marriage registers reveal an important increase in literacy; historians measure an acceleration of economic growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with a realistic survival law in which rising longevity increases individual incentives to invest in education and fosters growth. We quantitatively estimate that the observed improvements in adult mortality account for 70% of the growth acceleration in the pre-industrial age. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2003 .

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 105 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 401-418
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:105:y:2003:i:3:p:401-418

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Heckman, James J, 1976. "A Life-Cycle Model of Earnings, Learning, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S11-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1998. "Malthus to Solow," NBER Working Papers 6858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stokey, Nancy L., 2001. "A quantitative model of the British industrial revolution, 1780-1850," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 55-109, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-1, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Charles Jones, 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(advances/), pages 1028-1028. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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