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Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

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  • Malmberg, Bo

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Lindh, Thomas

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Abstract

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2004:7.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_007

Note: ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
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Web page: http://www.framtidsstudier.se
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Keywords: demographic projections; global income; long-term forecasts;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 132-148, March.
  2. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August.
  3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  4. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
  5. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas & Halvarsson, Max, 2005. "Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?," Arbetsrapport 2005:17, Institute for Futures Studies.
  6. Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.

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