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‘The Child is Father of the Man:’ Implications for the Demographic Transition

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Author Info
de la Croix, David
Licandro, Omar

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Abstract

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. Fertility, childhood development, longevity, education and income growth all result from individual decisions. Parents face a trade-off between the number of children they have and the spending they can afford on each of them in childhood. These childhood development spending will determine children longevity when adults. It is in this sense that we refer to Wordsworth’s aphorism that "The Child is Father of the Man." Parents face a second trade-off in allocating their time between increasing their own human capital and rearing children. The model displays different regimes. In a Malthusian regime with no education fertility increases with adult life expectancy. In the modern growth regime, life expectancy and fertility move in opposite directions. The dynamics display the key features of the demographic transition, including the hump in both population growth and fertility, and replicate the observed rise in educational attainment, adult life expectancy and economic growth. Consistent with the empirical evidence, a distinctive implication of our theory is that improvements in childhood development precede the increase in education.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6493.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6493

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Related research
Keywords: Fertility Height Human Capital Life Expectancy Mortality.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth - - - General, International, or Comparative

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  1. David, DE LA CROIX & Alessandro, SOMMACAL, 2006. "A Theory of Medecine Effectiveness, Differential Mortality, Income Inequality and Growth for Pre-Industrial England," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2006025, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. repec:rus:hseeco:71105 is not listed on IDEAS
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  18. Roderick Floud, 1984. "The Heights of Europeans Since 1750: A New Source For European EconomicHistory," NBER Working Papers 1318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Hazan, Moshe & Zoabi, Hosny, 2005. "Does Longevity Cause Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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