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Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run

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Charles I. Jones

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Abstract

This paper studies a growth model that is able to match several key facts of economic history. For thousands of years, the average standard of living seems to have risen very little, despite increases in the level of technology and large increases in the level of the population. Then, after thousands of years of little change, the level of per capita consumption increased dramatically in less than two centuries. Quantitative analysis of the model highlights two factors central to understanding this history. The first is a virtuous circle: more people produce more ideas, which in turn makes additional population growth possible. The second is an improvement in institutions that promote innovation, such as property rights: the simulated economy indicates that the single most important factor in the transition to modern growth has been the increase in the fraction of output pain to compensate inventors for the fruits of their labor.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7375.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7375

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O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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  6. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-1, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gary S. Becker & James S. Duesenberry & Bernard Okun, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 225-256 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-51, August.
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  11. Jacob Schoenhof, 1903. "History of the Working Classes and of Industry in France," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11, pages 416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Robert E. Lipsey, 1999. "Foreign Production by U.S. Firms and Parent Firm Employment," NBER Working Papers 7357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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