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Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy

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Author Info
Michele Boldrin (University of Minnesota)
Larry E. Jones (University of Minnesota)

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Abstract

We develop a model of fertility choice by utility maximizing households, based on an explicit notion of intergenerational external effects. In contrast to previous economic literature, we assume that the external effects run from children to parents. This gives rise to a fundamentally different reason for bearing of children, as parents expect to be cared for, at least partially, by their children in their old age. We take the behavior of infant mortality since 1541 as the key exogenous variable and endogeneize the size of the transfer from children to parents by linking it to the endogenous savings and fertility choice of the parents. This generates a dynamic model of a Malthusian society that performs substantially better, qualitatively and quantitatively, than previous economic models of endogenous fertility. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.2002.0186
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 775-814
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:5:y:2002:i:4:p:775-814

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  1. Zhang, Junsen & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1993. "The old-age security hypothesis revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 191-202, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gregory Clark, 2001. "The Long March of History: Farm Laborers Wages in England 1208-1850," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 625018000000000238, www.najecon.org. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988. "Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
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  4. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Haynes, Stephen E & Phillips, Llad & Votey, Harold L, Jr, 1985. " An Econometric Test of Structural Change in the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 87(3), pages 554-67.
  6. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-33, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rupa Chakrabarti, 1999. "Endogenous fertility and growth in a model with old age support," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 393-416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sah, Raaj Kumar, 1991. "The Effects of Child Mortality Changes on Fertility Choice and Parental Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 582-606, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jensen, Eric R, 1990. "An Econometric Analysis of the Old-Age Security Motive for Childbearing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 953-68, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lillard, L-A & Willis, R-J, 1997. "Motives for Intergenerational Transfers. Evidence from Malaysia," Papers 97-04, RAND - Reprint Series.
  13. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1999. "Malthus to Solow," Staff Report 257, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Michele Boldrin & Ana Montes, 2004. "The intergenerational state: education and pensions," Staff Report 336, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Raut, L K & Srinivasan, T N, 1994. "Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 777-90, August.
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