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Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

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  • Angeles, Luis

Abstract

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/46
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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2008-33.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:46

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Keywords: mortality; fertility; demographic transitions; unified growth models;

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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2012. "Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 9312, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  3. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Papadopoulou, Vea, 2013. "Crime, fertility, and economic growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 101-121.
  4. Dierk Herzery & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," PGDA Working Papers 6310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2012. "Fertility choice under child mortality and social norms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 338-341.
  6. Moshe Hazan, 2012. "Life expectancy and schooling: new insights from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1237-1248, October.
  7. Mun Lai, 2012. "When having many children pays: a case study from Taiwan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 323-348, January.
  8. Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Lars Lønstrup, 2014. "The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?," Economics Working Papers 2014-02, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  9. Strittmatter, Anthony & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Health and Economic Development - Evidence from the Introduction of Public Health Care," Economics Working Paper Series 1132, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  10. Anna-Maria Aksan & Shankha Chakraborty, 2013. "Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 855-885, July.
  11. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
  12. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  13. Chowdury, Sadia & Vergeer, Petra & Schmidt, Harald & Barroy, Helene & Bishai, David & Halpern, Scott, 2013. "Economics and Ethics of Results-Based Financing for Family Planning: Evidence and Policy Implications," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 84663, The World Bank.
  14. Nicholas Wilson, 2014. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes: Human Capital National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kaushal, Kaushalendra Kumar, 2014. "Pathway from nutrition intake to wage among elementary workers in India," MPRA Paper 56652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Aksan, Anna-Maria & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2013. "Twin Transitions," MPRA Paper 49929, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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