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Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap

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  • Tomas Kögel

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from a regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter a regime of hihg economic and population growth. To explain this transion of regime, we construct a two-sector growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. With this structure our model is able to replicate the stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. In addition, we show that industrialization requires rising growth of agricultural total factor productivity. This result is in marked contrast to previous work within a similar framework - but with a constant population - wich came to the conclusion that industrialization requires merely a rising level of agricultural total factor productivity. We conclude by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to also include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime where economic growth may lead to decreasing fertility. (AUTHORS)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2000-002.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-002

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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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Keywords: Malthusian theory; demographic transition; economic growth; population growth;

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  1. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
  2. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1995. "Early Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 116-33, March.
  3. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June.
  4. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2001. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. " Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  9. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  10. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  11. Kelly, Morgan, 2001. " Linkages, Thresholds, and Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
  12. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  13. Sorensen, Anders, 1999. " R&D, Learning, and Phases of Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 429-45, December.
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