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Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?

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Author Info
Dalgaard, Carl-Johan
Kreiner, Claus Thustrup

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Abstract

Fertility has been declining on all continents for the last couple of decades and this development is expected to continue in the future. Prevailing innovation-based growth theories imply, as a consequence of scale effects from the size of population, that such demographic changes will lead to a major slowdown in productivity growth. In this paper we challenge this pessimistic view of the future. By allowing for endogenous human capital in a basic R&D driven growth model we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth according to which population growth is neither necessary nor conductive for economic growth. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Growth.

Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 187-203
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:6:y:2001:i:3:p:187-203

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  1. Grossmann, Volker, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Innovation and Sustained Long-Run Growth without Weak or Strong Scale Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 3389, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christian Groth, 2004. "Innovation and growth: What have we learnt from the robustness debate?," Discussion Papers 04-29, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alberto Bucci & Davide Torre, 2009. "Population and economic growth with human and physical capital investments," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 17-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Frederic Tournemaine, 2007. "Can population promote income per-capita growth? A balanced perspective," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 15(8), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Economics Working Papers 831, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Creina Day, 2006. "Population and Endogenous Growth," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-475, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Creina Day, 2007. "Population and Endogenous Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Martin Kaae Jensen, 2007. "Life Cycle Savings, Bequest, and the Diminishing Impact of Scale on Growth," Discussion Papers 07-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Holger Strulik, 2001. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20109, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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