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The past and future of knowledge-based growth

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  • Holger Strulik

    ()

  • Klaus Prettner

    ()

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    ()

Abstract

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Growth.

Volume (Year): 18 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 411-437

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:18:y:2013:i:4:p:411-437

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102931

Related research

Keywords: R&D; Productivity; Fertility; Human capital; Demographic transition; J13; J24; O10; O30; O40;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "It's A Sin - Contraceptive Use, Religious Beliefs, and Long-Run Economic Development," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 11/2014, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  2. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Trade and productivity: The family connection redux," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 159, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  3. Lindner, Ines & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "The great divergence: A network approach," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 193, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Ines Lindner & Holger Strulik, 2014. "The Great Divergence: A Network Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-033/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Strulik, Holger, 2014. "Contraception and Development: A Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 7/2014, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  6. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "Technology, trade, and growth: The role of education," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 191, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  7. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: Three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 186, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  8. Colin Davis & Ken-ichi Hashimoto, 2014. "Industry Concentration, Knowledge Diffusion, and Economic Growth Without Scale Effects," Discussion Papers 1408, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  9. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2014. "Semi-Endogenous R&D Growth Model with Negative Population Growth," MPRA Paper 53833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Amavilah Voxi & Asongu Simplice & Andrés Antonio, 2014. "Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy," Working Papers 14/012, African Governance and Development Institute..

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