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Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusain Epoch: Theory and Evidence

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This paper empirically tests the predictions of the Malthusian theory with respect to both population dynamics and income per capita stagnation in the pre-Industrial Revolution era. The theory suggests that improvements in technology during this period generated only temporary gains in income per capita, eventually leading to a larger but not richer population. Using exogenous cross-country variations in land productivity and the timing of the Neolithic Revolution, the analysis demonstrates that, in accordance with the Malthusian theory, societies that were characterized by higher land productivity and an earlier onset of agriculture had higher population densities, but similar standards of living, during the time period 1-1500 CE.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2008-14.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2008-14

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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Keywords: Growth; Technological Progress; Population Dynamics; Land Productivity; Neolithic Revolution; Malthusian Stagnation;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor & Omer Ozak, 2009. "Isolation and Development," Department of Economics Working Papers 2009-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. Stelios Michalopoulos & Alireza Naghavi & Giovanni Prarolo, . "Trade and Geography in the Economic Origins of Islam: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0750, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. Gregory Dow & Clyde Reed & Nancy Olewiler, 2009. "Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 27-53, March.
  4. Quamrul Ashraf & Stelios Michalopoulos, 2010. "The Climatic Origins of the Neolithic Revolution: Theory and Evidence," Center for Development Economics 2010-10, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  5. Oded Galor, 2009. "2008 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture –Comparative Economic Development: Insights from Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2009-10, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  6. Mark Staley, 2010. "Innovation, diffusion and the distribution of income in a Malthusian economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 689-714, October.
  7. Voigtländer, Nico & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2009. "The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 7275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2010. "Malthus was right: new evidence from a time-varying VAR," IEW - Working Papers iewwp477, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  9. Bruno Chiarini, 2010. "The economic consequences of population and urbanization growth in Italy: from the 13th century to 1900. A discussion on the Malthusian dynamics," Discussion Papers 2_2010, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.

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