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Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Oded Galor
Andrew Mountford

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Abstract

This research argues that the di¤erential e¤ect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a signi?cant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive e¤ects on fertility and negative e¤ects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2008-2.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2008-2

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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  3. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2006. "The Galor-Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative Exercise," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 116-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, 09. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Baldwin, Richard E & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. " Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, And Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06. [Downloadable!]
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  35. O'Rourke, Kevin H & Taylor, Alan M & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1996. "Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 499-530, August.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Birth, Death, and Development: A Simple Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers 08-32, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gianfranco Di Vaio & Kerstin Enflo, 2009. "Did Globalization Lead to Segmentation? Identifying Cross-Country Growth Regimes in the Long-Run," Discussion Papers 09-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2008. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusain Epoch: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-14, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel Mejía & María Teresa Ramírez & Jorge Tamayo, . "The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 538, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dietz Vollrath, 2008. "The Dual Economy in Long-run Development," Working Papers 2008-03, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Berdugo, Binyamin & Hadad, Sharon, 2008. "How Do Firing Costs Affect Innovation and Growth when Workers' Ability is Unknown? – Employment Protection as a Burden on a Firm's Screening Process," MPRA Paper 11410, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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