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Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Oded Galor
Andrew Mountford

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Abstract

This research argues that the di¤erential e¤ect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a signi?cant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive e¤ects on fertility and negative e¤ects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2008-2.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2008-2

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  3. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Matsuyama, K., 1992. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth," Papers e-92-3, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
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  10. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2006. "The Galor-Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative Exercise," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 116-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Findlay, Ronald, 1996. "Modeling Global Interdependence: Centers, Peripheries, and Frontiers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 47-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2006. "Inequality in Land Ownership, the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions, and Great Divergence," Working Papers 2006-14, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, 09. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Baldwin, Richard E & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. " Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century of Missing Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 383-393, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. McDermott, John, 2002. " Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 371-409, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Findlay, Ronald & Kierzkowski, Henryk, 1983. "International Trade and Human Capital: A Simple General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 957-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Daniel Trefler & Susan Chun Zhu, 2005. "The Structure of Factor Content Predictions," NBER Working Papers 11221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Oded Galor & Omar Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2006. "Inequality in Land Ownership, the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_001, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, And Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06. [Downloadable!]
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  31. O'Rourke, Kevin H & Taylor, Alan M & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1996. "Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 499-530, August.
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  33. Gregory Clark & Robert Feenstra, 2001. "Technology in the Great Divergence," NBER Working Papers 8596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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