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Multiple Growth Regimes – Insights from Unified Growth Theory

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  • Galor, Oded

Abstract

Unified Growth Theory uncovers the forces that contributed to the existence of multiple growth regimes and the emergence of convergence clubs. It suggests that differential timing of take-offs from stagnation to growth segmented economies into three fundamental regimes: slow growing economies in a Malthusian regime, fast growing countries in a sustained growth regime, and economies in the transition between these regimes. In contrast to existing research that links regime switching thresholds to critical levels of income or human capital, UGT associates them with critical changes in the rates of technological progress, population growth, and human capital formation.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6427.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6427

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Keywords: convergence clubs; Malthusian epoch; sustained growth; unified growth theory;

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References

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  1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2006. "Inequality in Land Ownership, the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions, and Great Divergence," Working Papers 2006-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & PEETERS, Dominique & de la CROIX, David, . "Early literacy achievements, population density and the transition to modern growth," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1911, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  4. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November.
  5. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
  6. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 143-179.
  7. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2006. "Das Human-Kapital: A Theory of the Demise of the Class Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 85-117.
  10. Graham, Bryan S & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 804, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  13. Chris Papageorgiou & Viera Chmelarova, 2005. "Nonlinearities in Capital–Skill Complementarity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 55-86, 01.
  14. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2006. "Why England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_003, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  16. Oded_Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2004. "Trading Population for Productivity," Working Papers 2004-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  17. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
  2. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2009. "Extremal behavior of aggregated economic processes in a structural growth model," Cahiers de recherche 09-17, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke, revised 10 Mar 2010.
  3. Postiglione, Paolo & Benedetti, Roberto & Lafratta, Giovanni, 2010. "A regression tree algorithm for the identification of convergence clubs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2776-2785, November.
  4. Paolo Postiglione & M. Andreano & Roberto Benedetti, 2013. "Using Constrained Optimization for the Identification of Convergence Clubs," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 151-174, August.
  5. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.

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