This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Trading Population for Productivity

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Oded Galor (Brown University & Hebrew University)
Andrew Mountford (Royal Holloway)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This research argues that the rapid expansion of international trade in the second phase of the industrial revolution has played a significant role in the timing of demographic transitions across countries and has thereby been a major determinant of the distribution of world population and a prime cause of the Great Divergence in income per capita across countries in the last two centuries. The theory suggests that international trade affected the evolution of economies asymmetrically. The gains from trade were channeled towards population growth in non- industrial nations while in the industrial nations they were directed towards investment in education and growth in output per capita. International trade enhanced the specialization of industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. The rise in the demand for skilled labor induced an investment in the quality of the population, expediting the demographic transition, stimulating technological progress and further enhancing the comparative advantage of these industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. In non-industrial economies, in contrast, the specialization in the production of unskilled intensive goods that was brought about by international trade reduced the demand for skilled labor and provided limited incentives to invest in population quality. The gains from trade were utilized primarily for an increase in the size of the population. The demographic transition was therefore delayed, increasing further the abundance of unskilled labor in these economies and enhancing their comparative disadvantage in the production of skilled intensive goods. The focus on the interaction between population growth and comparative advantage generates an important new insight regarding the distribution of the gains from trade. The theory suggests that even if trade equalizes output growth of the trading countries, (due to the terms of trade effect), income per capita of developed and less developed economies will diverge since in less developed economies growth of total output will be generated primarily by population growth, whereas in developed economies it will be generated by an increase in output per capita.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/ge/papers/0410/0410001.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series GE, Growth, Math methods with number 0410001.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0410001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 43
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords: International Trade Demographic Transition Industrial Revolution Growth Human Capital

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth - - - General, International, or Comparative

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A, 2003. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. repec:rus:hseeco:72151 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Findlay, Ronald, 1996. "Modeling Global Interdependence: Centers, Peripheries, and Frontiers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 47-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kogel, Tomas & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2001. " Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 337-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Krugman, Paul R & Venables, Anthony J, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "Productivity Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 563-606, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century of Missing Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 383-393, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. McDermott, John, 2002. " Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 371-409, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Findlay, Ronald & Kierzkowski, Henryk, 1983. "International Trade and Human Capital: A Simple General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 957-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, And Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2001. "The Legacy of U.S. Educational Leadership: Notes on Distribution and Economic Growth in the 20th Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 18-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Nils-Petter Lagerloef, 2000. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1248, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  17. Doms, Mark & Dunne, Timothy & Troske, Kenneth R, 1997. "Workers, Wages, and Technology," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 253-90, February.
  18. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  20. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1995. "Early Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 116-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Kevin O'Rourke & Jeffrey Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, December.
  23. Taylor, Alan M., 1999. "Sources of convergence in the late nineteenth century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1621-1645, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Susanto Basu & David N. Weil, 1998. "Appropriate Technology And Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1025-1054, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Baldwin, Richard E & Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. " Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-1, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2002. "R&D, Implementation and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," NBER Working Papers 9104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal Of Fortune: Geography And Institutions In The Making Of The Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. O'Rourke, Kevin H & Taylor, Alan M & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1996. "Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 499-530, August.
  30. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2001. "The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(3), pages 584-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2006. "Trade and the Great Divergence: The Family Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 299-303, May.
    Other versions:
  2. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Ahmed S. Rahman & Alan M. Taylor, 2007. "Trade, Knowledge, and the Industrial Revolution," NBER Working Papers 13057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2005. "The Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions in the Process of Development," GE, Growth, Math methods 0508008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oded Galor, 2007. "Multiple Growth Regimes-Insights from Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2007-8, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fidel Pérez Sebastián & María Dolores Guilló, 2005. "Paths Of Development In Open Economies: The Role Of Land," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2004. "Land Inequality and the Origin of Divergence and Overtaking in the Growth Process," GE, Growth, Math methods 0410004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Oded Galor, 2006. "Economic Growth in the Very Long-Run," Working Papers 2006-16, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Brian Snowdon, 2008. "Towards a Unified Theory of Economic Growth: Oded Galor on the Transition from Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Economic Growth," Working Papers 2008-4, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard, 2006. "Cross-Border Flows of People, Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Productivity," Discussion Papers 06-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Gino Gancia, 2007. "North-South Trade and Directed Technical Change," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 713.07, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 27 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2005. "Land Inequality and the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions," Development and Comp Systems 0502018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over 800 institutions contribute their bibliographic data directly to this service.

This page was last updated on 2008-9-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.