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From Malthus to Modern Growth: The Three Regimes Revisited

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Author Info
Nils-Petter Lagerloef (University of Sydney)

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Abstract

This paper sets up a model which replicates the stylized facts of the economic and demographic development of western society the last couple of millennia, as described by Galor and Weil (AER, 1999). Under an initial Malthusian Regime the growth rates of population and income are both low, and the relation between income and population growth is positive. Thereafter follows a Post-Malthusian Regime, where the growth rates of income and population are higher, but the relation between income and population growth is still positive. Finally, the economy transits into a Modern Growth Regime, in which the population growth rate is low, but the growth rate of income is higher than in the Post-Malthusian Regime, and the relation between income and population growth is negative. The model's transition from the first regime to the second follows from a population externality: as the earth becomes more populated transmitting skills form one generation to the next becomes more effective. The transition from the second regime to the third occurs when parental human capital reaches a critical level at which altruistic concerns for children's education becomes operative, triggering a substitution from quantity to quality of children.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1248.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1248

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  1. Oded Galor, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oded_Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2004. "Trading Population for Productivity," Working Papers 2004-16, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2006. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_062, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport 2000:5, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2002. "Why are a Third of People Indian and Chinese? Trade, Industrialization and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3136, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oded Galor, 2006. "Economic Growth in the Very Long-Run," Working Papers 2006-16, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Galor, Oded & Michalopoulos, Stelios, 2006. "The Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 6022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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