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Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap

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  • Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia
  • Kögel, Tomas

Abstract

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from a regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter a regime of high economic and population growth. To explain this transition, we construct a two-sector growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. With this structure our model is able to replicate the stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. In addition, we show that industrialization requires rising growth of agricultural total factor productivity. This result is in marked contrast to previous work within a similar framework - but with a constant population - which came to the conclusion that industrialization requires merely a rising level of agricultural total factor productivity.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2485.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2485

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Keywords: Economic Growth; Fertility Choice; Malthusian trap; Technological Change;

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  1. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  3. Marvin Goodfriend & John McDermott, 1994. "Early development," Working Paper 94-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  4. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
  5. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. " Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  6. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of economic Growth," Working Papers 2000-18, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  7. Kelly, Morgan, 2001. " Linkages, Thresholds, and Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
  8. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May.
  10. Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Growth: With or Without Scale Effects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 139-144, May.
  11. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  12. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  13. Sorensen, Anders, 1999. " R&D, Learning, and Phases of Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 429-45, December.
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