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The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939

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Author Info
Antoni Estevadeordal
Brian Frantz
Alan M. Taylor

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Abstract

Measured by the ratio of trade to output, the period 1870 1913 marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization and the period 1914 39 its death. What caused the boom and bust? We use an augmented gravity model to examine the gold standard, tariffs, and transport costs as determinants of trade. Until 1913 the rise of the gold standard and the fall in transport costs were the main trade-creating forces. As of 1929 the reversal was driven by higher transport costs. In the 1930s, the final collapse of the gold standard drove trade volumes even lower.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9318.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9318

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June. [Downloadable!]
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  2. James Yetman, 2003. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows, and Capital Flows," Working Papers 182003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Frederic Mishkin, 2005. "Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?," NBER Working Papers 11891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pinilla, Vicente & Serranoz, Raul, 2008. "The agricultural and food trade in the first globalisation: Spanish table wine exports 1871 to 1935 – a case study," Working Papers 42657, American Association of Wine Economists. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stephen Meardon, 2006. "A Tale of Two Tariff Commissions and One Dubious 'Globalization Backlash'," RES Working Papers 4311, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephen Meardon, 2006. "Hacia un envejecimiento responsable: Las reformas de los sistemas pensionales América Latina," RES Working Papers 4312, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Galor, Oded & Mountford, Andrew, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Julien Reynaud & Fabien Lange & Lukasz Gatarek & Christian Thimann, 2007. "Proximity in coalition building," Working Paper Series 0808, Budapest Tech, Keleti Faculty of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kevin H. O’Rourke & Ahmed S. Rahman & Alan M. Taylor, 2007. "Trade, Knowledge and the Industrial Revolution," Development Working Papers 230, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Guillaume Daudin & Matthias Morys & Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2008. "Europe and Globalization, 1870-1914," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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