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R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era

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  • Holger Strulik

    ()

  • Klaus Prettner

    ()
    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    ()
    (Vienna Institute of Demography)

Abstract

Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate R&D-based growth into a unified growth setup with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.

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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 7411.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:7411

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Keywords: R&D; unified growth theory; declining population; fertility; schooling; human capital; post-modern society.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
  2. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  3. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
  4. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  5. Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  6. Prettner, Klaus, 2013. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 149, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  7. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2012. "Declining Fertility and Economic Well-Being: Do Education and Health Ride to the Rescue?," IZA Discussion Papers 6527, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2013. "Productivity Growth and Volatility: How Important Are Wage and Price Rigidities?," Working Paper Series 02_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ken Tabata, 2013. "Rising Longevity, Human Capital and Fertility in Overlapping Generations Version of an R&D-based Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 104, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2013.
  10. Prettner, Klaus, 2013. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 149, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  11. Prettner, Klaus, 2012. "Public education and economic prosperity: Semi-endogenous growth revisited," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2012, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).

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