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Population aging and endogenous economic growth

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  • Klaus Prettner

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Abstract

We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 811-834

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:2:p:811-834

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Keywords: Demographic change; Technological progress; Long-run economic growth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2013. "Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1457-1484, October.
  3. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ken Tabata, 2013. "Rising Longevity, Human Capital and Fertility in Overlapping Generations Version of an R&D-based Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 104, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2013.
  4. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  5. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2011. "The joint effect of demographic change on growth and agglomeration," ERSA conference papers ersa10p834, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
  7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Lábaj & Patrik Pruzinský, 2014. "Prospective Ageing and Economic Growth in Europe," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp165, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. Ben Heijdra & Jochen Mierau, 2011. "The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 63-87, March.
  9. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Growth and welfare e ffects of health care in knowledge based economies," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 120, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  10. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2011. "R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era," PGDA Working Papers 7411, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  11. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic Change in Models of Endogenous Economic Growth. A Survey," Working Papers 1008, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  12. Bilal Barakat & Johannes Holler & Klaus Prettner & Julia Schuster, 2010. "The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Labour and Education in Europe," Working Papers 1006, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  13. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner, 2010. "Agglomeration processes in aging societies," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp131, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  14. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2010. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp132, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.

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