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Population aging and endogenous economic growth

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  • Klaus Prettner

    ()
    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

Abstract

This article investigates the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. We introduce age specific heterogeneity of households into a model of research and development (R&D) based technological change. We show that the framework incorporates two standard specifications as special cases: endogenous growth models with scale e ects and semi-endogenous growth models without scale effects. The introduction of an age structured population implies that aggregate laws of motion for capital and consumption have to be obtained by integrating over different cohorts. It is analytically shown that these laws of motion depend on the underlying demographic assumptions. Our results are that (i) increases in longevity have positive effects on per capita output growth, (ii) decreases in fertility have negative effects on per capita output growth, (iii) the longevity effect dominates the fertility e ect in case of endogenous growth models and (iv) population aging fosters long-run growth in endogenous growth models, while the converse holds true in semiendogenous growth frameworks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 7211.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:7211

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Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda
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Keywords: population aging; endogenous technological change; longrun economic growth;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
  2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  3. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2011. "R&D-based growth in the post-modern era," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2011, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
  4. Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2013. "Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1457-1484, October.
  5. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ken Tabata, 2013. "Rising Longevity, Human Capital and Fertility in Overlapping Generations Version of an R&D-based Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 104, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2013.
  6. Bilal Barakat & Johannes Holler & Klaus Prettner & Julia Schuster, 2010. "The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Labour and Education in Europe," Working Papers 1006, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  7. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Growth and welfare e ffects of health care in knowledge based economies," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 120, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  8. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  9. Ben Heijdra & Jochen Mierau, 2011. "The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 63-87, March.
  10. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner, 2010. "Agglomeration processes in aging societies," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp131, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  11. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Lábaj & Patrik Pruzinský, 2014. "Prospective Ageing and Economic Growth in Europe," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp165, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  12. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic Change in Models of Endogenous Economic Growth. A Survey," Working Papers 1008, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  13. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2010. "Demographic change, growth and agglomeration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp132, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  14. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner, 2011. "The joint effect of demographic change on growth and agglomeration," ERSA conference papers ersa10p834, European Regional Science Association.

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