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The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005

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  • Strulik, Holger
  • Vollmer, Sebastian

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across the world using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the significance of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exists over the whole observation period. In 1950 about two thirds of the world's countries belonged to the high-fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005 this picture has reversed. Within both the low- and the high-fertility regime the average fertility rate declined, with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved closer together. For the low fertility-group we find both ?- and ?- convergence but we cannot establish any convergence pattern for the high fertility regime. Overall our findings are difficult to reconcile with the standard view of a fertility trap but they support the differentiated take-off view established in the Unified Growth literature. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 with number 60.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec10:60

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Keywords: Fertility; Convergence; Twin Peaks; Fertility Regimes; Unified Growth;

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Cited by:
  1. Dierk Herzery & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," PGDA Working Papers 6310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2011. "R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era," PGDA Working Papers 7411, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  3. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2012. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 140, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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