Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The past and future of knowledge-based growth

Contents:

Author Info

  • Strulik, Holger
  • Prettner, Klaus
  • Prskawetz, Alexia

Abstract

Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The model explains the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off during the transition explains why in modern economies high growth of productivity and income is associated with low or negative population growth. Because growth in modern economies is based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are much better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70204/1/726200638.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 140.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:140

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen
Web page: http://www.cege.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: R&D; declining population; fertility; schooling; human capital.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
  2. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
  3. Oded_Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth:Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2004-15, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Avner Ahituv, 2001. "Be fruitful or multiply: On the interplay between fertility and economic development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 51-71.
  6. Andreoni, James, 1989. "Giving with Impure Altruism: Applications to Charity and Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1447-58, December.
  7. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport, Institute for Futures Studies 2000:5, Institute for Futures Studies.
  8. GROWIEC, Jakub, 2006. "Fertility choice and semi-endogenous growth: where Becker meets Jones," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2006023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2010. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," Center for Development Economics 2010-07, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised May 2011.
  10. Connolly, Michelle & Peretto, Pietro F, 2003. " Industry and the Family: Two Engines of Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 115-48, March.
  11. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  12. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
  13. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Inequality and the Process of Development," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1001-1026.
  14. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 143-179.
  15. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. " Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  16. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2002. "Public versus Private Education when Differential Fertility Matters," UCLA Economics Working Papers 816, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Strulik, Holger & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2010. "The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 60, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  18. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, 02.
  19. Becker, Sascha O. & Cinnirella, Francesco & Wößmann, Ludger, 2010. "The trade-off between fertility and education: Evidence from before the demographic transition," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 20196, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  20. Madsen, Jakob & Ang, James & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2010. "Four Centuries of British Economic Growth: The Roles of Technology and Population," MPRA Paper 23510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Population Growth and Human Capital Investments: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S38-70, October.
  22. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
  23. Jones, C.I., 2000. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," Papers, United Nations World Employment Programme- 99-29, United Nations World Employment Programme-.
  24. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
  25. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 151, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  26. Hanushek, Eric A, 1992. "The Trade-Off between Child Quantity and Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 84-117, February.
  27. Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 120-142, March.
  28. Jaffe, A.B. & Trajtenberg, M., 1992. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," Papers, Tel Aviv 14-92, Tel Aviv.
  29. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
  30. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," UCLA Economics Working Papers 803, UCLA Department of Economics.
  31. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
  32. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
  33. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  34. Omer Moav, 2005. "Cheap Children and the Persistence of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 88-110, 01.
  35. Jakob Madsen, 2008. "Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, March.
  36. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2011. "R&D-based growth in the post-modern era," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2011, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
  37. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  39. Robert J. Gordon, 1999. "U.S. Economic Growth since 1870: One Big Wave?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 123-128, May.
  40. Herzer, Dierk & Strulik, Holger & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-456, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  41. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
  42. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  43. Wolfgang Keller, 2009. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 15442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, September.
  45. Jakob B. Madsen & James B. Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2010. "Four Centuries of British Economic Growth: The Roles of Technology and Population," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  46. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
  47. Angus Chu & Guido Cozzi & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2013. "Endogenous fertility and human capital in a Schumpeterian growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 181-202, January.
  48. Funke, Michael & Strulik, Holger, 2000. "On endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and product variety," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 491-515, March.
  49. Grossmann, Volker, 2009. "Entrepreneurial innovation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 602-613, December.
  50. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. " Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
  51. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  52. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-40, January.
  53. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  54. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "Technology, trade, and growth: The role of education," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 191, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  2. Lindner, Ines & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "The great divergence: A network approach," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 193, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  3. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: Three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 186, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  4. Amavilah, Voxi & Asongu, Simplice A & Andrés, Antonio R, 2014. "Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy," MPRA Paper 58756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Longevity and technological change," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 213, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  6. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Trade and productivity: The family connection redux," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 159, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  7. Ines Lindner & Holger Strulik, 2014. "The Great Divergence: A Network Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-033/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2014. "Semi-Endogenous R&D Growth Model with Negative Population Growth," MPRA Paper 53833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Colin Davis & Ken-ichi Hashimoto, 2014. "Industry Concentration, Knowledge Diffusion, and Economic Growth Without Scale Effects," Discussion Papers 1408, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  10. Attar, M. Aykut, 2014. "Entrepreneurship, knowledge, and the industrial revolution," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-34, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Strulik, Holger, 2014. "Contraception and Development: A Unified Growth Theory," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 7/2014, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.
  12. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "It's A Sin - Contraceptive Use, Religious Beliefs, and Long-Run Economic Development," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 11/2014, Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.