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Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?

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Author Info

  • Hongbin Li

    (Hongbin Li is assistant professor of economics in the Department of Economics and the Institute of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong)

  • Junsen Zhang

    (Junsen Zhang is professor of economics in the Department of Economics and the Institute of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth. The finding not only supports the view of Malthus, but also suggests that China's birth control policy is indeed growth enhancing. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 89 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 110-117

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:89:y:2007:i:1:p:110-117

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Cited by:
  1. Fang, Hai & Eggleston, Karen N. & Rizzo, John A. & Zeckhauser, Richard Jay, 2010. "Female Employment and Fertility in Rural China," Scholarly Articles 4449097, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Liu, Shenglong & Hu, Angang, 2013. "Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 71-77.
  3. Choudhry, Misbah T. & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 218-236, September.
  4. Haoming Liu, 2014. "The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China’s one-child policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 565-602, April.
  5. Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1535-1557, November.
  6. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
  7. Wang, Fei, 2012. "Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility," MPRA Paper 42226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Wang, Danny T. & Gu, Flora F. & Tse, David K. & Yim, Chi Kin (Bennett), 2013. "When does FDI matter? The roles of local institutions and ethnic origins of FDI," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 450-465.
  9. Xiaoyu Wu & Lixing Li, 2012. "Family size and maternal health: evidence from the One-Child policy in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1341-1364, October.
  10. C. Clark & Ulrich Doraszelski & Michaela Draganska, 2009. "The effect of advertising on brand awareness and perceived quality: An empirical investigation using panel data," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 207-236, June.
  11. Liao, Pei-Ju, 2013. "The one-child policy: A macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 49-62.
  12. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2012. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 140, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  13. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "Sex Ratios, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 16800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Fang, Hai & Eggleston, Karen N. & Rizzo, John A. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2012. "Jobs and Kids: Female Employment and Fertility in China," Working Paper Series rwp12-054, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  15. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Feb 2013.
  16. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2014. "Technology, trade, and growth: The role of education," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 191, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  17. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: Three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 186, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  18. Kathavate, Jay & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2012. "The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 716-724.

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