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Advances in development reverse fertility declines

Author

Listed:
  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, USA)

  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, USA)

  • Francesco C. Billari

    (DONDENA “Carlo F. Dondena” Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Università Bocconi, via Röntgen 1, 20136 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Global population trends The increasing wealth of nations is accompanied by a fall in fertility, so that in many developed (and developing) nations, fertility rates have dropped below the replacement value of about 2.1 births per woman. This 'birth dearth', together with the ageing of populations, presents many difficult social and political problems. But, based on new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the relationship between the total fertility rate and the human development index, Myrskylä et al. show that above a certain degree of economic development, fertility once again begins to rise, slowing the rate at which populations age. As a consequence, in contrast to the current popular and scientific debates, it seems likely that countries at the most advanced development stages will face a relatively stable population size, if not an increase in total population in cases where immigration is substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:460:y:2009:i:7256:d:10.1038_nature08230
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08230
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