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A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment

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Author Info
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (The University of Houston)

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment, and it’s implications for economic growth, focusing on the e ects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. If the marginal utility of a surviving child is convex then there will be a precautionary demand for children. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, this demand decreases. Furthermore, lower mortality encourages educational investment in children. The key result is that this empirically observed quality-quantity trade o is realized only if uncertainty is incorporated into individual’s optimization problem.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0212009.

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Date of creation: 17 Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0212009

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Related research
Keywords: Uncertainty; Precautionary demand; Quality-Quantity trade of; Growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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  1. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Becker, Gary S, 1981. "Altruism in the Family and Selfishness in the Market Place," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(189), pages 1-15, February.
  6. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. " Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Charles I. Jones, . "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," Working Papers 99008, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1976. "Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S163-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Francine D. Blau, 1996. "The Gender Pay Gap," NBER Working Papers 5664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis Angeles, 2008. "Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Working Papers 2008_25, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2005. "Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price: A Simple Model," Discussion Papers 00005, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Matthias Doepke, 2002. "Child Mortality and Fertility Decline: Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 824, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David N. Weil, 2004. "Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement," Working Papers 2004-04, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Macroeconomics 0212008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones & Aubhik Khan, 2005. "Three Equations Generating an Industrial Revolution?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000385, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2008. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," NBER Working Papers 14248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 4160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2008. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-21, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  11. Holger Strulik, 2005. "Geography, Health, and Demo-Economic Development," Discussion Papers 05-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2008. "The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 557-572, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2002. "Fertility, intergenerational transfers and economic development," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 297-321, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Satya Das & Rajat Deb, 2006. "A Dynamic Analysis of Child Labor with a Variable Rate of Discount: Some Policy Implications," Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1562-1562. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Alan Martina, 2007. "A Class of Poverty Traps: A Theory and Empirical Tests," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2007-482, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Leonid Azarnert, 2006. "Free Education: For Whom, Where and When?," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_024, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  17. Leonid Azarnert, 2006. "Child mortality, fertility, and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 285-297, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-3.

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