Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Gori, Luca

Abstract

We examine the effects of child policies on both transitional dynamics and long-term demo-economic outcomes in an overlapping-generations neoclassical growth model à la Chakraborty (2004) extended with endogenous fertility under the assumption of weak altruism towards children. The government invests in public health, and an individual’s survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure. We show that multiple development regimes can exist. However, poverty or prosperity do not necessarily depend on the initial conditions, since they are the result of how child policy is designed. A child tax for example can be used effectively to enable those economies that were entrapped in poverty to prosper. There is also a long-term welfare-maximising level of the child tax. We show that, a child tax can be used to increase capital accumulation, escape from poverty and maximise long-term welfare also when (i) a public pay-as-you-go pension system is in place, (ii) the government issues an amount of public debt. Interestingly, there also exists a couple child tax-health tax that can be used to find the second-best optimum optimorum. In addition, we show that results are robust to the inclusion of decisions regarding the child quantity-quality trade off under the assumption of impure altruism. In particular, there exists a threshold value of the child tax below (resp. above) which child quality spending is unaffordable (resp. affordable) and different scenarios are in existence.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44898/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44898.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 09 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44898

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Child policy; Endogenous fertility; Health; Life expectancy; OLG model;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2004. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," NBER Working Papers 10231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
  3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2006. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 12269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Momota, Michiko, 2000. "The gender gap, fertility, subsidies and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-405, December.
  5. Ab O, G. & Mahieu, G. & Patxot, C., 2004. "On the optimality of PAYG pension systems in an endogenous fertility setting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 35-62, March.
  6. Peters, Wolfgang, 1995. "Public Pensions, Family Allowances and Endogenous Demographic Change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 161-83, May.
  7. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2006. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birthweight, and China's 'One Child' Policy," Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University 933, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  8. Nishimura, Kazuo & Zhang, Junsen, 1992. "Pay-as-you-go public pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 239-258, July.
  9. Alessandro Cigno, 2010. "How to Avoid a Pension Crisis: A Question of Intelligent System Design ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, CESifo, vol. 56(1), pages 21-37, March.
  10. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  11. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "Precautionary Saving and Accidental Bequests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 777-91, September.
  12. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center, Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  13. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
  14. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. " Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-39, December.
  15. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2006. "Death and Development," 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 61, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Akira Yakita, 2001. "Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 635-640.
  18. Ehrlich, Isaac, 2000. "Uncertain lifetime, life protection, and the value of life saving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 341-367, May.
  19. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 7361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Robert Fenge & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2006. "Mixing Bismarck and Child Pension Systems:An Optimum Taxation Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1751, CESifo Group Munich.
  21. Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
  22. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," MPRA Paper 25811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2003. "Pensions and Fertility Incentives," CESifo Working Paper Series 879, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Cigno, Alessandro, 1992. "Children and Pensions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 175-83, August.
  25. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2005. "Human Capital Formation, Life Expectancy, and the Process of Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1653-1672, December.
  26. Shankha Chakraborty, 2002. "Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 2002-03, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Jan 2002.
  27. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, 06.
  29. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
  30. David, DE LA CROIX, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques), Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques 2008032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  31. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory & SATO, Motohiro, . "Longevity, health spending, and pay-as-you-go pensions," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  32. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
  33. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
  34. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Dennis Tao Yang & Marjorie McElroy, 2000. "Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 389-392, May.
  36. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Shankha Chakraborty, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics and development," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-28, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  37. Feldstein, Martin, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Scholarly Articles 2794830, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  38. Michael C.M. Leung & Yong Wang, 2010. "Endogenous Health Care, Life Expectancy And Economic Growth," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 11-31, 02.
  39. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "PAYG pensions, tax-cum-subsidy and optimality," MPRA Paper 20219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. John Strauss & Duncan Thomas, 1998. "Health, Nutrition, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 766-817, June.
  41. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
  42. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 1999. "Life expectancy and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 255-263, November.
  43. DE LA CROIX, David & PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Gregory, 2009. "How powerful is demography ? The Serendipity Theorem revisited," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2009076, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  44. Oded_Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth:Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2004-15, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  45. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous lifetime in an overlapping generations small open economy," Discussion Papers 2009/92, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  46. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
  47. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, 9.
  48. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
  49. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
  50. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  51. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2004. "Fertility, Taxation and Family Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 745-763, December.
  52. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester 0217, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  53. Fenge, Robert & Meier, Volker, 2009. "Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20340, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  54. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center, Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  55. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Qiao, Xue, 2005. "Public and Private Expenditures on Health in a Growth Model," Staff General Research Papers 12378, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  56. Bental, Benjamin, 1989. "The Old Age Security Hypothesis and Optimal Population Growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 285-301.
  57. Eckstein, Zvi & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1985. "Endogenous fertility and optimal population size," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 93-106, June.
  58. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2011. "The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 351-369, 08.
  59. Tamara Fioroni, 2010. "Child mortality and fertility: public vs private education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
  60. Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition," Munich Reprints in Economics 20078, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  61. Bas Groezen & Lex Meijdam, 2008. "Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 573-588, July.
  62. Makoto Hirazawa & Koji Kitaura & Akira Yakita, 2010. "Aging, fertility, social security and political equilibrium," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 559-569, March.
  63. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, 9.
  64. Cigno, Alessandro, 1995. "Public pensions with endogenous fertility: Comment on Nishimura and Zhang," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 169-173, May.
  65. Bunzel, Helle & Qiao, Xue, 2004. "Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth Revisited," Staff General Research Papers 12197, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  66. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2010. "HIV and Fertility Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
  68. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Ryder, Harl E. & Weil, David N., 2000. "Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, June.
  69. Andreoni, James, 1989. "Giving with Impure Altruism: Applications to Charity and Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1447-58, December.
  70. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2012. "PAYG pensions, tax-cum-subsidy and A-Pareto efficiency," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 65-71.
  71. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
  72. Fogel,Robert William, 2004. "The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521004886, 9.
  73. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, 9.
  74. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2009. "Population and neoclassical economic growth: A new child policy perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 27-30, July.
  75. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  76. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
  77. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 13, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  78. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:8:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-59, October.
  80. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  81. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  82. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
  83. Hung-Ju Chen, 2010. "Life expectancy, fertility, and educational investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 37-56, January.
  84. Cigno, Alessandro, 1993. "Intergenerational transfers without altruism : Family, market and state," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 505-518, November.
  85. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  86. Junsen Zhang & Junxi Zhang, 1998. "Social Security, Intergenerational Transfers, and Endogenous Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1225-1241, November.
  87. Eckstein, Zvi & Stern, Steven & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1988. "Fertility Choice, Land, and the Malthusian Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 353-61, May.
  88. Xiaoyu Wu & Lixing Li, 2012. "Family size and maternal health: evidence from the One-Child policy in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1341-1364, October.
  89. Makoto Hirazawa & Akira Yakita, 2009. "Fertility, child care outside the home, and pay-as-you-go social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 565-583, July.
  90. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2008. "The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 557-572, July.
  91. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1992. "The Effects of Financial Markets and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 319-41.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca & Tramontana, Fabio, 2011. "Endogenous lifetime, accidental bequests and economic growth," MPRA Paper 34647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Public expenditure on health and private old-age insurance in an OLG growth model with endogenous fertility: chaotic cycles under perfect foresight," MPRA Paper 23697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2009. "A two-sector OLG economy: economic growth and demographic behaviour," MPRA Paper 18869, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.