How Powerful is Demography? The Serendipity Theorem Revisited
AbstractIntroduced by Samuelson (1975), the Serendipity Theorem states that the competitive economy will converge towards the optimum steady-state provided the optimum population growth rate is imposed. This paper aims at exploring whether the Serendipity Theorem still holds in an economy with risky lifetime. We show that, under general conditions, including a perfect annuity market with actuarially fair return, imposing the optimum fertility rate and the optimum survival rate leads the competitive economy to the optimum steady-state. That Extended Serendipity Theorem is also shown to hold in economies where old adults work some fraction of the old-age, whatever the retirement age is fixed or chosen by the agents.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00575095.
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00575095
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
serendipity Theorem ; fertility ; mortality ; overlapping generations ; retirement;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
- Matthias Doepke, 2001.
"Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
804, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09.
- de la Croix, David & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2010.
"On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity,"
Mathematical Social Sciences,
Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 227-238, March.
- David De La Croix & Grégory Ponthière, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586242, HAL.
- DE LA CROIX, David & PONTHIÈRE, Grégory, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," CORE Discussion Papers 2008049, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- David, DE LA CROIX, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2008032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Oded_Galor & Omer Moav, 2004.
"Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy,"
2004-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2006. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_062, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2005. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409004, EconWPA.
- Shankha Chakraborty, 2002.
"Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2002-03, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Jan 2002.
- G. Abío & Geraldine Mahieu & Cio Patxot, 2003.
"On the Optimality of PAYG Pension Systems in an Endogenous Fertility Setting,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1050, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ab O, G. & Mahieu, G. & Patxot, C., 2004. "On the optimality of PAYG pension systems in an endogenous fertility setting," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 35-62, March.
- G. ABIO & Géraldine MAHIEU & C. Patxot, 2002. "On the Optimality of PAYG Pension Systems in an Endogenous Fertility Setting," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002006, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
- Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-83, June.
- Tomas J. Philipson & Gary S. Becker, 1998. "Old-Age Longevity and Mortality-Contingent Claims," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 551-573, June.
- PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, 2011.
"Optimal fertility along the lifecycle,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2011033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Optimal Fertility along the Lifecycle," Working Papers hal-00612609, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.