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Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model

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  • Luciano Fanti
  • Luca Gori

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Abstract

This article analyses how long-run pay-as-you-go public pensions react to a change in fertility in the basic overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth. While it would seem well established both in the academic and political debates that the decline in fertility represents a “demographic time bomb” for the sustainability of public pensions, it is shown that a falling birth rate need not necessarily cause long-run pension benefit to fall.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-011-0359-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 955-961

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:955-961

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Related research

Keywords: Fertility; PAYG pensions; OLG model; J26; O41;

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References

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  1. Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2010. "Mixing Bismarck and child pension systems: an optimum taxation approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 805-823, March.
  2. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  3. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
  4. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
  5. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1986. "On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 720-44, August.
  6. Burbidge, John B., 1983. "Social security and savings plans in overlapping-generations models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, June.
  7. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
  8. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
  2. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2013. "From Malthusian to Modern fertility: When intergenerational transfers matter," Discussion Papers 2013/163, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
  4. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2012. "Migration Challenge for PAYG," FIW Working Paper series 101, FIW.
  5. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2013. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," MPRA Paper 44898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Luciano Fanti, 2012. "Fertility and money in an OLG model," Discussion Papers 2012/145, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  7. Koichi Miyazaki, 2013. "Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1233-1250, July.

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