Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

PAYG pensions and fertility drop: some (pleasant) arithmetic

Contents:

Author Info

  • Luciano Fanti

Abstract

This paper explores whether the common belief that the currently observed fertility drop is a threat (or, conversely, the invoked fertility recovery is beneficial) for PAYG pensions is really always validated by the basic accounting of the PAYG pension budget. It is shown, through a simple arithmetic, that, rather surprisingly, in the long run a fertility drop may be beneficial, while, conversely, a fertility recovery may be harmful for pensions, under rather realistic conditions as regards both fertility changes and time costs of childrearing. Furthermore, this result also holds a fortiori in the short run.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.dse.ec.unipi.it/fileadmin/pdf/2012-146.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Can't connect to www.dse.ec.unipi.it:80 (10060). If this is indeed the case, please notify ()
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 2012/146.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2012/146

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Cosimo Ridolfi, 10 - 56124 PISA
Phone: +39 050 22 16 466
Fax: +39 050 22 16 384
Email:
Web page: http://www.dse.ec.unipi.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: PAYG pension; OLG model.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Introduction: relaunching Europe: problems, reform strategies and future options," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(3), pages 08-13, October.
  2. Fenge, Robert & Meier, Volker, 2005. "Pensions and Fertility Incentives," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 20343, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Philippe Weil, 2008. "Overlapping Generations: the First Jubilee," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8712, Sciences Po.
  4. Jens Bonke & Martin Browning, 2011. "Spending on Children: Direct Survey Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages F123-F143, 08.
  5. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
  6. Charles I. Jones, 2003. "Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  7. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521806428.
  8. Andreas Wagener, 2001. "On Intergenerational Risk Sharing within Social Security Schemes," CESifo Working Paper Series 499, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2010. "Mixing Bismarck and child pension systems: an optimum taxation approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 805-823, March.
  10. Smith, Alasdair, 1982. "Intergenerational transfers as social insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 97-106, October.
  11. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  12. Bruce Bradbury, 1992. "Measuring the Cost of Children," Discussion Papers, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre 0032, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
  13. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
  14. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  15. Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May.
  16. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
  17. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
  18. Blake, David, 2003. "Pension Schemes and Pension Funds in the United Kingdom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199243532, October.
  19. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2011. "Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(3), pages 09-17, December.
  20. Andreas Wagener, 2003. "Pensions as a portfolio problem: fixed contribution rates vs. fixed replacement rates reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134, 02.
  21. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
  22. Blake, David, 2000. "Does It Matter What Type of Pension Scheme You Have?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F46-81, February.
  23. John B. Shoven & Sita N. Slavov, 2006. "Political Risk Versus Market Risk in Social Security," NBER Working Papers 12135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. David Blake, 2008. "What is a Promise from the Government Worth? Quantifying Political Risk in State and Personal Pension Schemes in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(298), pages 342-361, 05.
  25. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  26. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1986. "On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 720-44, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2012/146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.