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Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model

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  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Gori, Luca

Abstract

This article analyses how long-run pay-as-you-go public pensions react to a change in fertility in the basic overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth. While it would seem well established both in the academic and political debates that the decline in fertility represents a “demographic time bomb” for the sustainability of public pensions, it is shown that a falling birth rate need not necessarily cause long-run pension benefit to fall.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25811.

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Date of creation: 11 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25811

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Keywords: Fertility; PAYG pensions; OLG model;

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  1. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
  2. Robert Fenge & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2006. "Mixing Bismarck and Child Pension Systems:An Optimum Taxation Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1751, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
  4. Burbidge, John B., 1983. "Social security and savings plans in overlapping-generations models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, June.
  5. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1986. "On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 720-44, August.
  6. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  7. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
  8. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
  2. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2012. "Migration Challenge for PAYG," FIW Working Paper series 101, FIW.
  3. Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2013. "Population Ageing and PAYG Pensions in the OLG Model," IZA Discussion Papers 7144, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Koichi Miyazaki, 2013. "Pay-as-you-go social security and endogenous fertility in a neoclassical growth model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1233-1250, July.
  5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2013. "Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1209-1232, July.
  6. Luciano Fanti, 2012. "Fertility and money in an OLG model," Discussion Papers 2012/145, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  7. Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2013. "From Malthusian to Modern fertility: When intergenerational transfers matter," Discussion Papers 2013/163, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

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