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HIV and fertility revisited

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Turan, Belgi

Abstract

Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variations in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 96 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 61-65

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:96:y:2011:i:1:p:61-65

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

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Keywords: HIV/AIDS Fertility Development;

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References

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  1. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2008. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," NBER Working Papers 14248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 170-94, July.
  3. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Center for Development Economics 2011-08, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Burke, Marshall & Gong, Erick & Jones, Kelly, 2011. "Income shocks and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1146, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2010. "Left Behind: Intergenerational Transmission of Human Captial in the Midst of HIV/AIDS," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive akbulut_hiv.pdf, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  5. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
  6. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00609798, HAL.
  7. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
  8. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Pablo Selaya, 2011. "Eye Disease and Development," Discussion Papers 11-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  9. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the Effects of AIDS on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  11. Marinescu, Ioana E., 2012. "HIV, Wages, and the Skill Premium," IZA Discussion Papers 6438, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Nicholas Wilson, 2014. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes: Human Capital National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Nicholas Wilson, 2012. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Working Papers 18226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  15. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama, 2012. "The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201207, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.

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