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HIV/AIDS and Fertility

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  • Jane G. Fortson

Abstract

This paper studies the response of fertility to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. I use repeated cross sections of the Demographic and Health Surveys for 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine this question empirically. Using individual birth histories from these data, I construct estimates of the regional total fertility rate over time. In a difference-in-differences approach, I compare regional HIV prevalence to changes in total fertility rates from the 1980s to the present. My results suggest that HIV/AIDS had very little impact on fertility, both overall and in a sample of HIV-negative women. (JEL I12, J13, O12)

Suggested Citation

  • Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 170-194, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:1:y:2009:i:3:p:170-94
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.1.3.170
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    2. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    3. Hoyt Bleakley & Fabian Lange, 2009. "Chronic Disease Burden and the Interaction of Education, Fertility, and Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 52-65, February.
    4. Jane Fortson, 2008. "The gradient in sub-saharan Africa: Socioeconomic status and HIV/AIDS," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 303-322, May.
    5. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Fertility

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    Cited by:

    1. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    2. Gil Shapira, 2017. "How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility: Evidence from Rural Malawi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(3), pages 680-718.
    3. Wilson, Nicholas, 2012. "Economic booms and risky sexual behavior: Evidence from Zambian copper mining cities," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 797-812.
    4. Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 59-83, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    6. Chin, Yoo-Mi, 2013. "Does HIV increase the risk of spousal violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 997-1006.
    7. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    8. Kudo, Yuya, 2017. "Why Is the Practice of Levirate Marriage Disappearing in Africa? HIV/AIDS as an Agent of Institutional Change," IDE Discussion Papers 627, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    9. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Center for Development Economics 2011-08, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    10. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    11. Rodolfo Manuelli & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "AIDS, Human Capital and Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 178-193, October.
    12. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
    13. William W. Olney, 2015. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 694-727.
    14. Yao, Yao, 2016. "Fertility and HIV risk in Africa," Working Paper Series 19501, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    16. Portner, Claus C., 2023. "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," SocArXiv jf9um, Center for Open Science.
    17. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    18. Rodolfo Manuelli & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "AIDS, Human Capital and Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 178-193, October.
    19. Marinescu, Ioana, 2014. "HIV, wages, and the skill premium," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 181-197.
    20. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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    1. HIV/AIDS and Fertility (American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2009) in ReplicationWiki

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