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HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys

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  • Chinhui Juhn
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Belgi Turan

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    Abstract

    The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. We utilize recent rounds of the demographic and health surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allow us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that although HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility, local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on noninfected women’s fertility. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 835-853

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:835-853

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    Related research

    Keywords: HIV/AIDS; Fertility; Economic development; O12; I12; J13;

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    References

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    1. Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 7082, Mathematica Policy Research.
    2. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2003. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," Development and Comp Systems 0312006, EconWPA.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    4. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
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    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2010. "HIV and Fertility Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
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