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HIV and Fertility Revisited

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  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Belgi Turan

Abstract

Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variation in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16115.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Publication status: published as Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16115

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  1. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan & Chinhui Juhn, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," 2009 Meeting Papers 650, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  3. Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 170-94, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  2. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama, 2012. "The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201207, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  3. Nicholas Wilson, 2014. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes: Human Capital National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Center for Development Economics 2011-08, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
  5. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
  6. Nicholas Wilson, 2012. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Working Papers 18226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. William W. Olney, 2011. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-13, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  9. Burke, Marshall & Gong, Erick & Jones, Kelly, 2011. "Income shocks and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1146, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00609798 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Marinescu, Ioana E., 2012. "HIV, Wages, and the Skill Premium," IZA Discussion Papers 6438, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the Effects of AIDS on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  13. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," MPRA Paper 26146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
  15. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Pablo Selaya, 2011. "Eye Disease and Development," Discussion Papers 11-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

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