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Adult Mortality, AIDS and Fertility in Rural Malawi

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  • Durevall, Dick

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Lindskog, Annika

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

The impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has received attention recently, since changes in population structure can impact on future economic development. We analyze the effect of AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using data from Malawi 2004 Demographic and Health Survey and population censuses. Since AIDS was the dominating cause of death during the 1990s and early 2000s, we use prime-age adult mortality as the key explanatory variable. The focus is on heterogeneity in the response of gender-specific mortality rates. By estimating ordered probit models we show that actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, and that the overall fertility response is positive but small. One interpretation of the findings is that the effects of female and male mortality differ because of an old-age security motive for having children. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, she is less likely to need support of children and demand should be low, but when the risk of husband’s death is high, the woman should expect to rely more on children’s support.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/33675
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 570.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0570

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Keywords: AIDS; demand for children; fertility; HIV; adult mortality; old age security;

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  1. Magadi, Monica Akinyi & Agwanda, Alfred O., 2010. "Investigating the association between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 335-344, July.
  2. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
  3. Juhn, Chinhui & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 4473, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Ueyama, Mika & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2008. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 764, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
  6. Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Doug Miller & A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach, 2006. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics 621, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  8. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2007. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow 2007_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  9. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Oster, Emily, 2012. "HIV and sexual behavior change: Why not Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-49.
  11. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
  12. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
  14. Peter J. Glick & David E. Sahn, 2008. "Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 397-439.
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