Adult Mortality, AIDS and Fertility in Rural Malawi
AbstractThe impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has received attention recently, since changes in population structure can impact on future economic development. We analyze the effect of AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using data from Malawi 2004 Demographic and Health Survey and population censuses. Since AIDS was the dominating cause of death during the 1990s and early 2000s, we use prime-age adult mortality as the key explanatory variable. The focus is on heterogeneity in the response of gender-specific mortality rates. By estimating ordered probit models we show that actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, and that the overall fertility response is positive but small. One interpretation of the findings is that the effects of female and male mortality differ because of an old-age security motive for having children. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, she is less likely to need support of children and demand should be low, but when the risk of husband’s death is high, the woman should expect to rely more on children’s support.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 570.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC
AIDS; demand for children; fertility; HIV; adult mortality; old age security;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2013-08-31 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2013-08-31 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2013-08-31 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2013-08-31 (Development)
- NEP-HEA-2013-08-31 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, 2008.
"How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, . "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2160, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2007. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Working Papers 2007_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Rodolphe, DESBORDES & Hélène, LATZER, 2008. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2008025, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Peter J. Glick & David E. Sahn, 2008. "Are Africans Practicing Safer Sex? Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys for Eight Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 397-439.
- Mika Ueyama & Futoshi Yamauchi, 2009.
"Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi,"
Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 43-63, February.
- Ueyama, Mika & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2008. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 764, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006.
"AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
- Oster, Emily, 2012. "HIV and sexual behavior change: Why not Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-49.
- Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2008.
"HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys,"
NBER Working Papers
14248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan & Chinhui Juhn, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," 2009 Meeting Papers 650, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Juhn, Chinhui & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 4473, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Doug Miller & A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach, 2006.
"Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors,"
621, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
- A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2007. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002.
"How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?,"
NBER Working Papers
8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
- Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
- Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.