Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited

Contents:

Author Info

  • David Croix

    ()

  • Pierre Pestieau

    ()

  • Grégory Ponthière

    ()

Abstract

Introduced by Samuelson (1975), the Serendipity Theorem states that the competitive economy will converge towards the optimum steady-state provided the optimum population growth rate is imposed. This paper aims at exploring whether the Serendipity Theorem still holds in an economy with risky lifetime. We show that, under general conditions, including a perfect annuity market with actuarially fair return, imposing the optimum fertility rate and the optimum survival rate leads the competitive economy to the optimum steady-state. That Extended Serendipity Theorem is also shown to hold in economies where old adults work some fraction of the old-age, whatever the retirement age is fixed or chosen by the agents.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-011-0362-z
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 899-922

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:899-922

Contact details of provider:
Phone: +43-70-2468-8236
Fax: +43-70-2468-8238
Email:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00148/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Related research

Keywords: Fertility; Mortality; Overlapping generations; E13; E21; I18;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
  2. de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2007. "‘The Child is Father of the Man:’ Implications for the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. MICHEL, Philippe & PESTIEAU, Pierre, . "Population growth and optimality. When does serendipity hold?," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1072, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Tomas J. Philipson & Gary S. Becker, 1998. "Old-Age Longevity and Mortality-Contingent Claims," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 551-573, June.
  5. JOUVET, Pierre-André & PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, . "Longevity and environmental quality in an OLG model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2377, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Gregory Ponthiere, 2009. "Rectangularization And The Rise In Limit-Longevity In A Simple Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 17-46, 01.
  7. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409004, EconWPA.
  8. Gemma Abio Roig, 2003. "Interiority of the Optimal Population Growth Rate with Endogenous Fertility," Working Papers in Economics 96, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  9. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-83, June.
  10. David De La Croix & Géraldine Mahieu & Alexandra Rillaers, 2004. "How Should the Allocation of Resources Adjust to the Baby Bust?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 607-636, October.
  11. DE LA CROIX, David & PONTHIÈRE, Grégory, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," CORE Discussion Papers 2008049, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  12. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-15, June.
  13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
  15. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151.
  16. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  17. DE LA CROIX, David & MAHIEU, Géraldine & RILLAERS, Alexandra, . "How should the allocation of resources adjust to the baby bust?," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1741, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
  19. Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 804, UCLA Department of Economics.
  20. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2007. "Rational and Behavioral Perspectives on the Role of Annuities in Retirement Planning," NBER Working Papers 13537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2011. "Optimal Fertility along the Lifecycle," PSE Working Papers hal-00612609, HAL.
  2. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
  3. Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(2), pages 210-230, 05.
  4. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00612609 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
  6. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, 2012. "The public economics of increasing longevity," CORE Discussion Papers 2012005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Thomas Renstrom & Luca Spataro, 2014. "Population growth and human capital: a welfarist approach," Public Finance Research Papers 3, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DIGEF, Sapienza University of Rome.
  9. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00676492 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:899-922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.