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How powerful is demography? The Serendipity Theorem revisited

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  • David Croix

    ()

  • Pierre Pestieau

    ()

  • Grégory Ponthière

    ()

Abstract

Introduced by Samuelson (1975), the Serendipity Theorem states that the competitive economy will converge towards the optimum steady-state provided the optimum population growth rate is imposed. This paper aims at exploring whether the Serendipity Theorem still holds in an economy with risky lifetime. We show that, under general conditions, including a perfect annuity market with actuarially fair return, imposing the optimum fertility rate and the optimum survival rate leads the competitive economy to the optimum steady-state. That Extended Serendipity Theorem is also shown to hold in economies where old adults work some fraction of the old-age, whatever the retirement age is fixed or chosen by the agents

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 899-922

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:25:y:2012:i:3:p:899-922

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Related research

Keywords: Fertility; Mortality; Overlapping generations; E13; E21; I18;

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References

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  1. Michel, Philippe & Pestieau, P, 1993. "Population Growth and Optimality: When Does Serendipity Hold?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 353-62, November.
  2. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
  3. de la Croix, David & Mahieu, Géraldine & Rillaers, Alexandra, 2000. "How should retirement policy adjust to the baby bust ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Hu, Sheng Cheng, 1979. "Social Security, the Supply of Labor, and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 274-83, June.
  5. David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2007. "‘The Child is Father of the Man:’ Implications for the Demographic Transition," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/05, European University Institute.
  6. Tomas J. Philipson & Gary S. Becker, 1998. "Old-Age Longevity and Mortality-Contingent Claims," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 551-573, June.
  7. Gregory Ponthiere, 2009. "Rectangularization And The Rise In Limit-Longevity In A Simple Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 17-46, 01.
  8. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521806428, April.
  9. JOUVET, Pierre-André & PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, . "Longevity and environmental quality in an OLG model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2377, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2005. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. David, DE LA CROIX, 2008. "On the Golden Rule of capital accumulation under endogenous longevity," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  12. Shankha Chakraborty, 2002. "Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-03, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Jan 2002.
  13. Gemma Abio Roig, 2003. "Interiority of the Optimal Population Growth Rate with Endogenous Fertility," Working Papers in Economics 96, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  14. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
  15. Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 804, UCLA Department of Economics.
  16. Deardorff, Alan V, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Comment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 510-15, June.
  17. DE LA CROIX, David & MAHIEU, Géraldine & RILLAERS, Alexandra, . "How should the allocation of resources adjust to the baby bust?," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1741, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Klaus Jaeger & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2009. "The optimum growth rate for population reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
  20. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2007. "Rational and Behavioral Perspectives on the Role of Annuities in Retirement Planning," NBER Working Papers 13537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, 2012. "The public economics of increasing longevity," CORE Discussion Papers 2012005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2013. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," MPRA Paper 44898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2014. "Optimal fertility along the life cycle," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 185-224, January.
  4. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(2), pages 210-230, 05.
  6. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00676492 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00612609 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Thomas Renstrom & Luca Spataro, 2014. "Population growth and human capital: a welfarist approach," Public Finance Research Papers 3, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DIGEF, Sapienza University of Rome.
  9. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Public Expenditure on Health and Private Old-Age Insurance in an OLG Growth Model with Endogenous Fertility: Chaotic Dynamics Under Perfect Foresight," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 333-353, December.
  10. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS

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