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Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?

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  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (University of Western Australia)

  • Md. Rabiul Islam

    (Monash University)

  • Xueli Tang

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

The fertility transition that took place in the West from approximately the 1870s to the 1970s is often suggested to have been instrumental for the shift from the post-Malthusian growth regime to the modern growth regime. Constructing a unique data set over the period 1820–2015 for 21 advanced countries, this paper tests whether fertility has had real economic effects through the channels of education, saving, investment and female labor force participation rates. The dairy-cereal price ratio and the pastoral-land ratio are used as instruments for fertility. The results indicate that the fertility transition has been a significant contributor to growth since the 1880s and, consequently, was pivotal for the transition to the modern growth regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & Xueli Tang, 2020. "Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 431-454, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:25:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10887-020-09183-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-020-09183-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The great fertility transition; Growth and fertility; Transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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