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The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth

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Abstract

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011-14.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2011-14

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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  1. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
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  9. David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2009. "How Relevant Is Malthus for Economic Development Today?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 255-60, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Wilde, 2013. "How Substitutable are Fixed Factors in Production? Evidence from Pre-industrial England," Working Papers, University of South Florida, Department of Economics 0113, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
  2. Román David Zárate, 2013. "Family size and children quality: New evidence and new exogenous shocks in the case of Colombian Households," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 010588, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

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