Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth

Contents:

Author Info

  • Quamrul H. Ashraf
  • David N. Weil
  • Joshua Wilde

Abstract

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17377.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17377.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth" (with Quamrul H. Ashraf and David N. Weil); Population and Development Review, 2013. 39(1): 97-130.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17377

Note: EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 2507, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2006. "The Marginal Product of Capital," CEP Discussion Papers dp0735, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Quamrul Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David Weil, 2008. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," Working Papers 2008-7, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones & Michele Tertilt, 2004. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," NBER Working Papers 10231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Doepke, Matthias & Hazan, Moshe & Maoz, Yishay D., 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3253, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Kyung-Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, 09.
  7. Ronald D Lee & Andrew Mason & Tim Miller, 1998. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics 199805, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  8. David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2009. "How Relevant Is Malthus for Economic Development Today?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 255-60, May.
  9. World Bank, 2005. "Where is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7505, August.
  10. Richard Rogerson & Douglas Gollin, 2009. "The Greatest of All Improvements: Roads, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Africa," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 759, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1995. "Population Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262181606, December.
  12. William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1972. "Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 5: Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nord72-1, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Joshua Wilde, 2013. "How Substitutable are Fixed Factors in Production? Evidence from Pre-industrial England," Working Papers, University of South Florida, Department of Economics 0113, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
  2. Román David Zárate, 2013. "Family size and children quality: New evidence and new exogenous shocks in the case of Colombian Households," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 010588, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.