The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth
AbstractWe assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17377.
Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Other versions of this item:
- Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth," Working Papers 2011-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2011. "The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth," Center for Development Economics 2011-07, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-09-05 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2011-09-05 (Development)
- NEP-MAC-2011-09-05 (Macroeconomics)
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