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Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend

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Author Info
David E. Bloom
David Canning
Günther Fink
Jocelyn E. Finlay

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Abstract

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a cross-country panel data set using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find a large negative effect of the fertility rate on female labor force participation. The direct effect is concentrated among those aged 20–39, but we find that cohort participation is persistent over time giving an effect among older women. We present a simulation model of the effect of fertility reduction on income per capita, taking into account these changes in female labor force participation as well as population numbers and age structure.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13583.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13583

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229–247. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kristen Mammen & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Women's Work and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 141-164, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1976. "Child Endowments and the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages S143-62, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 150-154, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-40, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
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  13. Smith, James P & Ward, Michael P, 1985. "Time-Series Growth in the Female Labor Force," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages S59-90, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Martha J Bailey, 2006. "More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women's Life Cycle Labor Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(1), pages 289-320, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jacob Alex Klerman, 1999. "U.S. Abortion Policy and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 261-264, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Browning, Martin, 1992. "Children and Household Economic Behavior," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1434-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
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  19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Gary S. Becker & Edward L. Glaeser & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn Finlay, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4008, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Vinoj Abraham, 2009. "Employment Growth in Rural India: Distress Driven?," Working Papers id:1824, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  5. Quamrul H. Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David N. Weil, 2008. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," NBER Working Papers 14449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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