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Implications of population ageing for economic growth

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  • David E. Bloom
  • David Canning
  • Günther Fink

Abstract

The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during the period 2005--50. Population ageing will tend to lower both labour-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest--but not catastrophic--declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioural responses (including greater female labour-force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labour-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults towards the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Pages: 583-612

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:26:y:2010:i:4:p:583-612

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  1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
  2. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. David E. Bloom & Ajay Mahal & Larry Rosenberg & Jaypee Sevilla, 2010. "Economic security arrangements in the context of population ageing in India," PGDA Working Papers 6010, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dora L. Costa, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History, 1880-1990," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cost98-1, octubre-d.
  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  8. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & An-Chi Tung & Mun-Sim Lai & Tim Miller, 2006. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 12770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
  11. Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Laitner, John, 2007. "Comment on: David Bloom, David Canning, Rick Mansfield, and Michael Moore's "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 115-117, January.
  15. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P Smith, 2012. "The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1212, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  2. Klaus Prettner & David E. Bloom & Holger Strulik, 2012. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: do education and health ride to the rescue?," PGDA Working Papers 8412, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  3. Bloom, David E. & McKinnon, Roddy, 2013. "The Design and Implementation of Public Pension Systems in Developing Countries: Issues and Options," IZA Policy Papers 59, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Bloom, David E. & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2013. "Ageing and Productivity: Introduction," IZA Discussion Papers 7205, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  6. Sau-Him Lau, 2013. "Does longevity improvement always raise the length of schooling through the longer-horizon mechanism?," 2013 Meeting Papers 292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  8. Ernesto Friedrich de Lima Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo Rios-Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612, March.
  9. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Bali, Azad Singh & Asher, Mukul G., 2012. "Coordinating Healthcare and Pension Policies: An Exploratory Study," ADBI Working Papers 374, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  11. Prettner, Klaus & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 139, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  12. David E. Bloom & Axel Boersch-Supan & Patrick McGee & Atsushi Seike, 2011. "Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, and Responses," PGDA Working Papers 7111, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  13. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2012. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?," PGDA Working Papers 9112, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  14. Patrick A. Imam, 2013. "Shock from Graying," IMF Working Papers 13/191, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Kunze, Lars, 2014. "Life expectancy and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 54-65.
  16. Bloom, David E. & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2013. "Ageing and productivity," FZID Discussion Papers 63-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  17. David Vázquez Guzman, 2012. "A comparative study of well-being for elders in Mexico and England," Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. 9, Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, revised 09 Dec 2012.
  18. Sasa Milivojevic & Dragan Filimonovic, 2012. "Ageing of Population and Demographic Consequences in Future Labour Market Trends," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.

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